Prediction of Mango Production Using Machine Intelligence Techniques:
A Case Study from Karnataka, India
Santosha Rathod1, Vijayakumar S1*, Nirmala Bandumula2 and Gayathri Chitikela3
1Scientist, ICAR-Indian Institute Rice Research, Hyderabad, Telangana, India
2Senior Scientist, ICAR-Indian Institute Rice Research, Hyderabad, Telangana, India
3Professor Jayashankar Telangana State Agricultural University, Hyderabad, Telangana, India
*Corresponding Author: Vijayakumar S, Scientist, ICAR-Indian Institute Rice Research, Hyderabad, Telangana, India.
July 15, 2022; Published: August 05, 2022
Mango is the largest producing fruit crop in India. On the other hand, Karnataka is called the horticultural state of India, where mango is the highest producing fruit crop. A developing economy relies heavily on forecasting for effective planning and long-term sustainable growth. The most common technique used for forecasting in several fields for many years is autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). The assumptions of linearity and stationarity are major key flaws in this model. As many time series phenomenon in the real world are not purely linear, therefore there is an opportunity to enhance the prediction ability of ARIMA models by employing nonlinear machine intelligence techniques like Autoregressive Neural Network (NAR: Neural Network Autoregressive) and non-linear support vector regression (NLSVR) model. In this study, an attempt is made to forecast the mango production of Karnataka using ARIMA, NAR and NLSVR. According to empirical evidence, the predicting accuracy of the time series machine intelligence technique is clearly superior than the traditional ARIMA model.
Keywords: Mango Production; Time Series; ARIMA; NAR; NLSVR
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